Mendocino County Voter Rolls Show Shift Toward Conservative Parties
In 2024 the number of registered voters who identified as Republican increased by 12% while the number of registered voters who identified as Democrats declined by 4%
An analysis of voter registration data by MendoLocal.News shows a recent shift in Mendocino County toward parties typically associated with more conservative political views.
Between 2020 and 2024, the number of registered Democrats declined by 4% to 25,338 voters. Green Party registration fell 6% to 753 voters. Registration in the Peace and Freedom Party, a small socialist party, increased 27% to 375 voters.
Over the same period, Republican registration rose 12% to 12,561 voters. The American Independent Party, often associated with conservative positions, increased 36% to 2,650 voters. Libertarian registration rose 14% to 740 voters.
Voters registered with no party preference declined 7% to 11,196.
Overall, the county’s registered voter population grew slightly, increasing by 201 voters to a total of 53,898. The net shift toward more conservative parties represents about 4% of the electorate.
National research suggests that party switching remains relatively limited but has, in recent years, slightly favored Republicans. A 2022 analysis by The Messina Group found that from 2018 to 2020, about 1.3 million Democrats switched to the Republican Party, compared with 1.0 million Republicans who became Democrats. From 2020 to 2022, roughly 673,000 Democrats switched to Republican, while about 570,000 Republicans switched to Democrat.
Overall, the net advantage in party switching favored Republicans by about 267,000 voters from 2018 to 2020 and about 103,000 voters from 2020 to mid-2022. Still, party switchers represent a small share of the electorate. Between 2016 and 2022, about 3.3% of registered voters in the states studied changed party affiliation.
Other research has found similar levels of voter movement between parties. A 2020 analysis by the Pew Research Center found that 9% of voters who identified as or leaned Republican in 2018 identified as or leaned Democratic two years later. A similar share of Democratic-leaning voters shifted toward the Republican Party during the same period.
However, local data diverges from the national trends. According to a January report from Gallup, 45% of U.S. adults identify as political independents. In Mendocino County, that figure is about 30%.
The analysis is based on a snapshot of registration data from February 2025. With reader support, Mendo Local will update the analysis following the June primary election.
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The cost of the voter registration database in 2025 was $393.